College or pro, if you’re any type of football fan, you probably already know that the NFL draft is less than three weeks away.
The start of meaningful basketball (finally), opening day baseball and the NHL playoffs (the most competitive pro playoffs) pale in comparison to the anticipation of adding seven (or so) top-level rookies to my favorite NFL team’s roster.
After all, it’s always been the best (only) way to get an NFL-fix before the August preseason begins (if it actually happens this year).
For me, the vast inventory of $9 NFL Draft preview magazines sold at Borders/Safeway/7-Eleven reminds me of being eight-years-old in the baseball card shop; rationing my resources to see who I’m going to add to my collection and maximize value. Those traits are also what draws many to fantasy sports, as much of a team’s success hangs on its draft evaluation process.
The NFL draft is a real-life version in which we fantasy sports nerds can have a take on who should go where, offering a forum of debate that can only really be settled after years of assessment.
With just about everybody offering a mock draft online now, I am taking the opportunity to put my own first-round predictions on the record.
Below is my forecast for the top 10 picks. A complete list of first-round predictions will follow over the next three weeks leading up to the April 28 draft.
Rosy’s April 8 Mock Draft
Round 1
1. Carolina – Cam Newton – QB – Auburn
Despite an underwhelming February combine, character issues and doubts of his ability to run a pro-style offense, the Heisman Trophy winner is currently regarded as the favorite to be the top pick. Former Oregon State quarterback Matt Moore has been a quality stop-gap solution (when healthy) for the Panthers, while 2010 second-round pick Jimmy Clausen still left a lot to be desired in his first action with a bad team. A strong class of interior lineman will be the only other temptation for a team looking to rebuild.
2. Denver – Marcell Dareus – DT – Alabama
Auburn’s Nick Fairley won once regarded as the best of an elite D-tackle class, but Dareus has jumped the Auburn lineman in the eyes of most scouts. The Broncos will show a commitment to the 4-3 defensive scheme by selecting the top tackle.
3. Buffalo – Von Miller – OLB – Texas A&M
The Bills appear to have struck out with former first-rounder Aaron Maybin, so drafting combine superman Miller might be the easiest way move on, or at least get some production from its pass rush. Buffalo has many pressing needs, but Miller’s athleticism is too much to pass up. Either way, there is no chance the linebacker falls out of the top five considering his pre-draft hype.
4. Cincinnati – Blaine Gabbert – QB – Missouri
The Bengals would like to draft another position, but the sale of quarterback Carson Palmer’s Cincinnati home means that their options may be limited. Many scouts regard Gabbert as the most pro-ready signal-caller in the 2011 draft, and that could be the best route to take in order to keep Chad Ochocinco happy.
5. Arizona – Patrick Peterson – CB – LSU
The Cardinals could contend again in the lackluster NFC West with a quarterback, but with their top two QB’s off the board, Arizona is forced to go another direction. Peterson is labeled as the safest pick in the draft by most experts, and there isn’t a better consolation prize than this complete cornerback.
6. Cleveland – A.J. Green – WR – Georgia
With so many teams in need of other positions, a can’t-miss receiver like Green is too hard to pass up. And the Browns will take any help they can get in aiding Colt McCoy’s development on an overall mediocre team.
7. San Francisco – Prince Amukamara – CB – Nebraska
Patrick Peterson likely won’t last until the seventh pick, so the Niners grab the second best cover man. While many think San Francisco is just a quarterback away from a playoff run, its defense is one solid defensive back away from being the best in the league. A pass-rusher would also help, but the dropoff at corner forces new coach Jim Harbaugh to look at the secondary as his primary choice.
8. Tennessee – Nick Fairley – DT – Auburn
If the Titans are truly giving up on Vince Young, expect them to take a look at quarterback. Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett could tempt them to reach a bit, but they are still searching for an Albert Haynesworth-replacement. Expect Fairley, the one-time favorite to be the top pick, to have his name called near the top 10.
9. Dallas – JJ Watt – DE – Wisconsin
Watt is viewed as the best 3-4 defensive end, and the Cowboys can’t pass up the chance to replace on of many free agents along their defensive front. Without many glaring holes, Dallas is in position to draft a potential immediate starter like Watt, or just take the best available player. A plethora of defensive lineman will be available.
10. Washington – Julio Jones – WR – Alabama
The Redskins showed a lot of interest in UW quarterback Jake Locker before he opted to return to the Huskies. Locker’s senior season didn’t help his stock, so the Skins may gamble and wait to grab him later. Donovan McNabb won’t be back, so Rex Grossman will be the incumbent. Combine star Jones, of Alabama, might be the best option to help Grossman regain some of his 2006 form.
Check back next week for Rosy’s 2011 mock NFL Draft 2.0
- Jake Rosenberg
