Jake Rosenberg’s April 15 Mock Draft

Round 1

1. Carolina – Cam Newton – QB – Auburn

Despite an underwhelming February combine, character issues and doubts of his ability to run a pro-style offense, the Heisman Trophy winner is currently regarded as the favorite to be the top pick. Former Oregon State quarterback Matt Moore has been a quality stop-gap solution (when healthy) for the Panthers, while 2010 second-round pick Jimmy Clausen still left a lot to be desired in his first action with a bad team. A strong class of interior lineman will be the only other temptation for a team looking to rebuild.

2. Denver – Marcell Dareus – DT – Alabama

Auburn’s Nick Fairley won once regarded as the best of an elite D-tackle class, but Dareus has jumped the Auburn lineman in the eyes of most scouts. The Broncos will show a commitment to the 4-3 defensive scheme by selecting the best among a deep pool of defensive linemen. A 4-12 record usually doesn’t land a spot this early in the draft, so Denver has even more added value with this pick.

3. Buffalo – Nick Fairley – DT – Auburn

A pass-rusher like Von Miller is tempting, but the NFL’s second worst rush defense won’t get any better without some help inside. Buffalo has a history of reaching on early draft picks, so Fairley could be a perfect fit here. While the Auburn tackle was once looked at as a possibility for the top overall pick, Fairley has fallen on most teams’ draft boards. If the Bills believe in Ryan Fitzpatrick, a future quarterback will be addressed in later rounds while the Bills focus on defense early.

4. Cincinnati – Blaine Gabbert – QB – Missouri

The Bengals would like to draft another position, but the sale of quarterback Carson Palmer’s Cincinnati home means that their options may be limited. A majority of evaluators see Gabbert as the top QB in the 2011 draft, so this selection could be the best route for Cincy to keep its few remaining skill players happy.

5. Arizona – Von Miller – OLB – Texas A&M

The Cardinals could contend again in the lackluster NFC West with a new quarterback, but with their two highest rated QB’s off the board, Arizona is forced to go in a different direction. Top cornerback Patrick Peterson could be too hard to pass up here, but Miller’s top-level athleticism will be an instant upgrade over an aging Joey Porter.

6. Cleveland – A.J. Green – WR – Georgia

With so many teams in need of other positions, a can’t-miss receiver like Green falls to a Browns team in need of a top-level target. Colt McCoy already has a few pieces around him in the offensive huddle, but Green gives Cleveland a consistent threat.

7. San Francisco – Patrick Peterson – CB – LSU

While many think San Francisco is just a quarterback away from a playoff run, its defense is one solid defensive back away from ranking among the best in the league. An outside pass-rusher and 3-4 linemen are also on new head coach Jim Harbaugh’s first-round wish list, but the 49ers feel too fortunate to have the best coverman still available. The Browns selected Florida CB Joe Haden last year, so the Niners will be even more lucky to not have to trade up to grab No. 1 CB. If Peterson does go earlier, don’t be shocked if San Fran trades down, in Bill Walsh fashion, in order to add more picks to its league-high 12.

8. Tennessee – JJ Watt – DE – Wisconsin

With a No. 8-worthy quarterback no longer available, the Titans address another area of need along their front seven. Watt can play at any position along the front, and that could help a line that has a few injury-prone players and possible free-agent departures. WR Kenny Britt’s recent run-in with the law may tempt Tennessee to look seriously at Alabama wideout Julio Jones. If the Titans reach for a quarterback, Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett would be the only candidate.

9. Dallas – Tyron Smith – OT – USC

Considering the Cowboys’ questions on the defensive line, Watt would be the pick if he’s still around. Southern Cal’s Smith would be the next best option, as his ability to play either offensive tackle position would help quaterback Tony Romo stay healthy.

10. Washington – Julio Jones – WR – Alabama

The Redskins showed a lot of interest in UW quarterback Jake Locker before he opted to return to the Huskies for 2010. Locker’s senior season didn’t help his stock, so the Skins should be able to take a small gamble and wait to grab him later. Donovan McNabb won’t be back, so Rex Grossman will be the incumbent. Combine star Jones, of Alabama, might be the best option to help Grossman regain some of his 2006 form.

11. Houston Texans – Aldon Smith – OLB – Missouri

The Texans surrendered 24 or more points in 14 of 16 games last season, and their playoff-less existence will continue if the offense is forced to score 30 points every game. Former No. 1 overall pick Mario Williams’ production at defensive end could spike if he gets some help rushing the passer, and Smith’s athletic ability would give Houston all the help it needs on the edge.

12. Minnesota Vikings – Robert Quinn – DE – North Carolina

An aging defensive line gets an immediate contributor with the draft’s most complete DE/OLB. Quinn has been climbing up draft boards recently, so it’s likely he will go in the first 10 picks. The Tar Heel carries with him a small red flag after receiving improper benefits, but most scouts still believe character is not a concern.

13. Detroit Lions – Prince Amukamara – CB – Nebraska

The only reason Amukamara, the No. 2-rated corner, falls is because Peterson went later than expected. Adding a playmaker in the secondary will allow the Lions to add some much needed depth at corner. Protecting oft-injured QB Matthew Stafford was Detroit’s primary concern before the Cornhusker fell to them.

14. St. Louis Rams – Kyle Rudolph – TE – Notre Dame

Bradford needs weapons, but he will get many back on the outside when half of the Rams’ young and underrated receiving core returns from 2010 injuries. St. Louis currently has a quality blocking tight end in Billy Bajema, so adding the sure-handed Kyle Rudolph could be the final piece to a well-rounded offense.

15. Miami Dolphins -Mark Ingram – RB – Alabama

The Dolphins hesitate to dip into former coach Nick Saban’s large pool of Alabama talent, but Ingram’s consistent productivity puts him ahead of Virginia Tech’s Ryan Williams as the draft’s top running back.  If Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams don’t fit in with Miami’s future plans, expect one of the two to be taken at No. 15.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars – Da’Quan Bowers – DE – Clemson

Bowers’ nightmare fall out of the top 15 ends when Jacksonville decides to continue rebuilding its defensive front. Questions of his injured knee resurfaced after his pro day workout, so Jacksonville gets the opportunity to take a chance on a guy with top-pick talent.

17. New England Patriots (from Oakland) – Muhammad Wilkerson – DE – Temple

Richard Seymour was dealt last year to Oakland for this pick, and nose tackle Vince Wilfork isn’t getting any younger. Wilkerson gives the Pats an immediate starter who can also spell Wilfork when needed. New England’s first of two picks in the top 28 will certainly be a guy who can contribute right away.

18. San Diego Chargers – Nate Solder – OT – Colorado

The right side of the Chargers’ offensive line is its only glaring weakness on offense. Solder has the skills to play at guard or tackle, and San Diego has two open spots ready to take over.

19. New York Giants – Anthony Castonzo – OT – Boston College

Like San Diego, the Giants are solid and young in many areas on offense. The offensive line adds depth with a capable starter like Castonzo, who was once thought of as the best overall blocker coming out of college.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Cameron Jordan – DE – California

The Bucs are another team craving help along the offensive line, but with the crop of top blockers getting thin, Tampa Bay shifts its focus to the defensive line. After addressing the interior last year with Oklahoma’s Gerald McCoy, Tampa goes with the best available end, Cal’s Cameron Jordan.

21. Kansas City Chiefs – Phil Taylor – DT – Baylor

The Chiefs have chosen three defensive linemen in the first round since 2008, but they still haven’t found their future nose tackle. Taylor fits about the same mold as current starting ends Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson, but now KC will have a guy to take the spot over center when Ron Edwards leaves.

22. Indianapolis Colts – Mike Pouncey – OG – Florida

Indianapolis can’t keep anyone in its secondary healthy, but protecting Peyton Manning is always going to be priority No. 1. Jeff Saturday, Indy’s starting center for the last decade, has only a few years left. Maurkice Pouncey proved to be a late first-round steal for Pittsburgh last year, so the Colts could be enticed to take the Steeler center’s twin brother if they think he can provide the same impact.

23. Philadelphia Eagles – Jimmy Smith – CB – C0lorado

Smith’s skills are thought to rival those of this draft class’ top corners, but his stats suffered as Big 12 opponents rarely threw his direction. Off-the-field trouble is what dropped Smith this low, but a corner-hungry Eagles team is more than willing to take a chance.

24. New Orleans Saints – Corey Liuget – DT – Illinois

Former first-round pick Sedrick Ellis will be fighting off double-teams until the Saints find a DT to eat up some blockers alongside him. Liuget brings the skills to start immediately for a team just two years removed from a Super Bowl victory.

25. Seattle Seahawks – Ryan Mallett – QB – Arkansas

Most Seattle fans would like to see UW’s Jake Locker taken here if the Seahawks decide to go with a quarterback. Pete Carroll wasn’t likely to be impressed with Locker while scheming against him at USC, so the second-year coach goes with Mallett instead. While the offensive line still needs help, Mallett is a boom-or-bust prospect that can replace Matt Hasselbeck if the Charlie Whitehurst-experiment doesn’t work out.

26. Baltimore Ravens – Cameron Heyward – DE – Ohio State

The first Buckeye off the board doesn’t come until late in the first round. Baltimore continues to bolster its defense with young linemen, and Heyward is one of the few remaining DE’s that can start immediately in their 3-4.

27. Atlanta Falcons – Derek Sherrod – OT – Mississippi State

The Falcons are one of a few teams who don’t need to look for starters. Selecting Sherrod would allow Atlanta to toy with their offensive line and keep quarterback Matt Ryan clean and healthy for another deep playoff run.

28. New England Patriots – Ryan Kerrigan – DE – Purdue

Kerrigan fits perfectly as a strong-side end or outside linebacker in New England’s 3-4. If the Pats address the interior with the No. 17 selection, they can build a strong defensive front for years to come by adding to the outside of their front-seven.

29. Chicago Bears – Gabe Carimi – OT – Wisconsin

A big, tough offensive linemen used to playing in the cold weather is just what the Bears need to make sure Jay Cutler is available under center late in the season. Carimi’s size and strength will help keep Chicago’s fragile QB on the field and away from the exercise bike in January.

30. New York Jets – Stephen Paea – DT – Oregon State

Jets coach Rex Ryan needs linemen that can take on double-teams, and Paea is well-versed in that area. An aging defensive front should already be making room for Ryan’s next crop of strong, young linemen.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers – Brandon Harris – CB – Miami

Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers showed how to beat the Pittsburgh’s defense in the Super Bowl by spreading the field, so the Steelers look to add depth in the secondary. Harris’ physical play will allow Pittsburgh to not miss a beat in its defensive backfield.

32. Green Bay Packers – Stefen Wisniewski – OG – Penn State

The Super Bowl champions usually have few needs when draft day comes, and Green Bay is no exception — they should be even stronger with the return of many key players. An improved, but still mediocre, offensive line will be the Packers’ main concern. Wisniewski is one of many first-round caliber offensive linemen available in which Green Bay will look at with the final pick of Thursday’s (April 28) opening round.

 

Check back April 22 for Rosy’s 2011 mock NFL Draft 3.0

- Jake Rosenberg