Rosy’s mock 2011 NFL Draft 3.0

Rosy’s April 22, 2011 NFL Draft predictions

Round 1

1. Carolina Panthers (Team needs: DL, QB, OL, TE) -

Cam Newton – QB – Auburn: After three months of debating, Newton appears to be the consensus top pick, allowing the rest of the order to take shape. With questions regarding his character and pro-readiness, Newton isn’t even listed as a Top 10 prospect by most well-known draft gurus. He’s at the top of rebuilding Carolina’s list, however, which could mean the end of 2010 second-round pick Jimmy Clausen’s chances as the team’s future signal-caller. Despite many other team-needs, the Heisman Trophy winner’s potential and playmaking ability make him the first choice.

2. Denver Broncos (DL, OG, OLB, DB) -

Marcell Dareus – DT – Alabama: Dareus has the ability to play at any spot on the defensive line, and the Broncos switch back to the 4-3 makes this an easy choice. Despite a 4-12 record during the 2010 regular season, a record that usually doesn’t land such a high pick, Denver comes away with maybe the highest rated player in the draft and the best of a deep crop of talented linemen.

3. Buffalo Bills (DL, OLB, QB, OL) -

Nick Fairley – DT – Auburn: The Bills were ranked 31st against the run last year. Although Fairley would likely be available later, the Bills overpay again for a first-round lineman in order to fill a glaring hole. A pass-rusher like Von Miller is another possibility if the Bills don’t go with a quarterback. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been serviceable, so expect Buffalo to look for a younger replacement in the next two rounds.

4. Cincinnati Bengals (QB, WR, DB, OG) -

Blaine Gabbert – QB – Missouri: Carson Palmer has already sold his Cincinnati home and moved back to California, so the Bengals are forced to take a quarterback instead of addressing other needs. Gabbert is ranked by most experts as the top QB in the draft and this selection allows Cincy to move on quickly without much of a dropoff in production.

5. Arizona Cardinals (QB, LB, CB, OL) -

Von Miller – OLB – Texas A&M: The only quarterbacks worth a No. 5 pick are gone, so the Cards will have to look for an available veteran QB when free agency final begins. Miller would be an instant upgrade over the aging Joey Porter. LSU defensive back Patrick Peterson is another possibility here, but Miller’s athleticism portrayed at the combine is too enticing.

6. Cleveland Browns (WR, OL, DL, RB) -

A.J. Green – WR – Georgia: The Browns have handed Colt McCoy the quarterback reigns, but the former Longhorn still lacks a consistent No. 1 target. Green would go earlier in most drafts, so Cleveland feel fortunate to grab one of the top-rated college receivers in the last decade.

7. San Francisco 49ers (DB, DL, OLB, QB) -

Patrick Peterson – DB – LSU: The Niners have been struggling to get over the hump and into the playoffs ever since drafting Alex Smith with the No. 1 pick in 2005. San Francisco will commit one more season to Smith by not taking a quaterback and grabbing the best defensive back instead. If Cleveland didn’t take Joe Haden in last year’s draft, San Fran might have looked to trade down and add to its league high 12 draft picks.

8. Tennessee Titans (QB, DL, OL, WR) -

Julio Jones – WR – Alabama: Randy Moss will be gone after only a handful of games with the Titans, while Kenny Britt’s recent run-ins with the law have left more doubt in a sputtering passing game that will no longer feature Vince Young at quarterback. Jones will give Tennessee depth and another target for whoever is under center in 2011.

9. Dallas Cowboys (OT, DL, CB, S) -

Tyron Smith – OT – USC: The Cowboys have needs along both lines, so they draft the best available in Southern Cal’s Smith. With Tony Romo missing extended time last year due to injury, Smith gives Dallas an instant starter at right tackle to better protect their star quarterback.

10. Washington Redskins (QB, DL, WR, OL) -

J.J. Watt – DL – Wisconsin: Head coach Mike Shanahan will find a way to bench $100 million defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth if he continues to disrupt the team’s locker room, and Watt gives the coach an instant replacement at any spot along the 3-4 line. Rex Grossman is not a long-term option, but no quarterback left on the board is worth spending a top 10 pick on.

11. Houston Texans (CB, OLB, OL, WR) -

Aldon Smith – OLB – Missouri: Mario Williams is the best of a young, quality defensive front. An edge-rusher like Smith would detract some of the former No. 1 pick’s constant double-teams and help a defense that surrendered 24 or more points in 14 games in 2010.

12. Minnesota Vikings (OL, DL, DB, QB) -

Da’Quan Bowers – DE – Clemson: Once thought of as a the best lineman in the draft, Bowers fell on many draft boards when teams realized he had not fully recovered from a knee injury. The Vikings’ defensive line is one the best in the league, but age is catching up to its starters.

13. Detroit Lions (OL, CB, LB, WR) -

Prince Amukamara – CB – Nebraska: Many teams may look to trade up for Amukamara, who would only fall this far because of strength at other positions. An offensive lineman is the Lions main concern in order to keep quarterback Matthew Stafford healthy for a full season, but the Cornhusker cornerback gives Detroit more value than any of the remaining offensive tackles or guards.

14. St. Louis Rams (DB, LB, DL, TE) -

Corey Liuget – DT – Illinois: Last year’s No. 1 overall pick, quarterback Sam Bradford, will only get better when the Rams’ top two receivers return from injury. With that, St. Louis can concentrate on bolstering its defense. Another quality lineman playing inside of defensive end Chris Long will give the Rams two youngsters to build around.

15. Miami Dolphins (RB, OG, DB, DT) -

Mark Ingram – RB – Alabama: Ronnie Brown and Rickey Williams are rumored to be out of the Dolphins’ two-back system, so they go with a young and productive runner that can handle the load by himself. Miami proves the bridge isn’t completely burnt with former coach Nick Saban by drafting the former Heisman Trophy winner from Alabama.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars (DL, OL, QB, LB) -

Robert Quinn – DE – North Carolina: The Jags addressed the interior of its 4-3 front with Tyson Alualu last year, so they look for the best available end in this year’s draft. Quinn, who was tabbed by UNC coach Butch Davis as a better 4-3 end than a 3-4 OLB, is likely to go earlier. If Quinn is gone, expect Jacksonville to go with a different end, such as Bowers or Cameron Jordan, Alualu’s former linemate at Cal.

17. (from Oakland) New England Patriots (DL, OLB, OT, CB) -

Muhammad Wilkerson – DE – Temple: Former DE Richard Seymour was traded to Oakland before last season, and the Pats find his replacement with the pick they traded him for. Wilkerson comes in about the same mold as other New England linemen, so he should be able to contribute immediately as most of Bill Belichick’s picks do.

18. San Diego Chargers (OL, DL, OLB, DB) -

Nate Solder – OT – Colorad0: The Chargers need a guard and an offensive tackle to take over one of the two spots on the right side. With Solder, San Diego gets a guy they can plug in at either position.

19. New York Giants (OL, LB, DB, RB) -

Anthony Castonzo – OT – Boston College: The Giants can add depth to an aging offensive line by grabbing an offensive tackle. Castonzo is thought to be the best overall blocker in the draft, and former Boston College coach Tom Coughlin won’t hesitate to take him.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DL, DB, OLB, OL) -

Cameron Jordan – DE – California: The Bucs’ first pick last year, Oklahoma’s Gerald McCoy, will develop faster if he has some help on the outside. Jordan will be the pick if the pool of offensive lineman continues to thin out.

21. Kansas City Chiefs (NT, OL, LB, DB) -

Phil Taylor – DT – Baylor: Former first-rounders Glenn Dorsey, Tyson Jackson and Tamba Hali only need a linemen-eating nose tackle to form one of the league’s imposing, young defensive fronts. Ron Edwards’ time over center is coming to an end, especially if Taylor is taken.

22. Indianapolis Colts (OL, DT, DB, LB) -

Derek Sherrod – OT – Mississippi State: The Colts cut ties with oft-injured safety Bob Sanders, but Indy won’t find a worthy replacement at No. 22. Sherrod has the talent to take over if one of the incumbent offensive linemen fall during another championship run. 

23. Philadelphia Eagles (OG, CB, TE, LB) -

Mike Pouncey – OG – Florida: Coach Andy Reid can shore up his offensive line by taking the best available interior lineman. Pouncey’s stock continues to rise after his twin brother, Maurkice Pouncey, was able to take over at center for the Steelers as a rookie last year.

24. New Orleans Saints (OT, TE, DL, LB) -

Kyle Rudolph – TE – Notre Dame: Jeremy Shockey wasn’t able to stay on the field much for New Orleans. Now that the veteran tight end is gone, the Saints give quarterback Drew Brees a big target to replace him. Rudolph missed time last year because of injury, so that could be a red flag and a reason to look on the defensive side.

25. Seattle Seahawks (OG, QB, OT, DB) -

Danny Watkins – OG – Baylor: The Seahawks would like to take one of the many quarterbacks left on the board, but none of them are worth a first-round pick at this point. Arkansas’ Ryan Mallet and Huskies quarterback Jake Locker might be available in the later rounds. Either Matt Hasselbeck or Charlie Whitehurst will be under center to start the season, so Seattle needs to bolster the 0-line to get the most out of the quarterback position.

26. Baltimore Ravens (DL, OL, LB, CB) -

Cameron Heyward – DE – Ohio State: Heyward can step in right away at either of the 3-4 end spots. The Baltimore defense remains as one of the league’s best, but adding youth will be key to keeping it that way.

27. Atlanta Falcons (DB, LB, TE, OL) -

Rahim Moore – S – UCLA: The Falcons have rebuilt their secondary over the last few years, and Moore, who led the NCAA with 10 interceptions in2009, gives Atlanta another playmaker on defense.

28. New England Patriots (DL, OLB, RB, WR) -

Ryan Kerrigan – DE – Purdue: New England’s second first-rounder will be an outside linebacker if it finds an end with the No. 17 selection. Kerrigan is a perfect fit as a strong-side outside linebacker in the Pats’ scheme.

29. Chicago Bears (OL, DB, DL, WR) -

Gabe Carimi – OT – Wisconsin: The Bears need a mauler to bring up their average yards-per-rush and a big right tackle to help Jay Cutler stay upright when the cold weather hits Chicago. Carimi is exactly what they need.

30. New York Jets (DE, OLB, DT, WR) -

Stephen Paea – DT – Oregon State: The Jets are old and injury prone on their defensive front, so coach Rex Ryan won’t let Paea slip to the second round. The former Beavers’ strength and ability to take on double-teams brings another impact player to an already impressive defense.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers (DB, DL, OG, WR) -

Jimmy Smith – CB – Colorado: Smith has the skills to be an early first-round pick, but his off-field troubles drop him to the end of the opening day. After getting torched by Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh can’t deny themselves a shot at the best available cover man.

32. Green Bay Packers (OL, DL, RB, LB) -

Ryan Williams – RB – Virginia Tech: The Packers production at running back fell off considerably after Ryan Grant went down on opening day. Williams is a first-round talent and Green Bay realizes that by taking the Virginia Tech runner with the final pick.

*Submit your own mock draft to jake.rosenberg@lee.net to see how you stacked up against my final April 27 predictions. Just copy the information below and fill in the blanks. The top four team-needs are listed next to every team to help you out. Results will be posted the following week.

Mock draft scoring system (each prediction will be awarded one of the following):

5 points for correct player to correct team at correct selection.

4 points for correct player to correct team at different selection (in case of draft-day trades)

3 points for correct player at correct selection to different team (in case of draft-day trades)

2 points for player taken within one selection of prediction

1 point for player taken within two selections of prediction

Check back April 27 for Rosy’s final 2011 mock NFL Draft 4.0

- Jake Rosenberg