Since the NFL combine in late February, this year’s top prospects have been analyzed to see where they could possibly land in tomorrow’s draft.
While Oregon State defensive tack Stephen Paea is the only player from the either of the local universities likely to see his name called in the first day, a handful of other Beavers and Ducks could  be selected in the later rounds on April 29 and 30.
Paea is a first-round caliber lineman in any draft, but an injury during Senior Bowl week dropped the lineman on many draft boards despite setting a combine record 49 bench-press reps.
Teammate Jacquizz Rodgers would be regarded as a mid- to late-round pick in most other draft classes, but the junior opted to leave, most likely due to an unusually weak crop of running back in this years draft. With that, Rodgers could see his name called as early as the late-second round.
OSU center Alex Linnenkohl and Beavers defensive backs James Dockery and Suaesi Tuimaunei are other possible late-round selections.
Green Bay linebacker Clay Matthews’ recent success may tempt a few teams in the middle rounds to take a closer look at his brother, U of O linebacker Casey Matthews.
While Clay Matthews, the 2010 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, has become a star in the outside position in a 3-4 defense, most scouts regard the former Duck as a better fit in the 4-3.
Wide receiver Jeff Maehl, Brandon Bair, who is projected as a 3-4 defensive lineman, and offensive lineman C.E. Kaiser may also represent the Ducks by the time the final pick is called to the podium on April 30.
Now, back to the first round.

With only a few offensive linemen and skill-position players slated to go in the first half of the first round, a plethora of elite defensive linemen and have been moving up the board.

As many as nine defensive tackles and ends are likely to have their name called in the first 20 picks, prompting many analysts to tab this group of lineman as the best in NFL Draft history.

The crop of quarterbacks is also strong. NFL Draft guru Mike Mayock believes has eight quarterbacks with first- or second-round grades.

Auburn’s Cam Newton is ranked third on Mayock’s list of the top incoming rookie signal-callers, but the NFL Network analyst predicts, like most other draft experts, the Panthers will take the Heisman Trophy winner first overall.

Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert’s skills are regarded as the most NFL-ready, but Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett is tabbed as the most likely to succeed early after spending his college career in a pro-style offense.

Character concerns with Mallett have dropped his stock, possibly out of the first round, so University of Washington quarterback Jake Locker and Florida State’s Christian Ponder might push him further down the order as early second- or even late first-round picks.

Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton of TCU and Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi may also jump the Razorback.

Another thing to watch for: With teams not able to trade current players and pre-draft free-agency eliminated, expect many teams to package later draft picks in order to move up in the order.

Those are the stories to keep on eye on in the next three days. Happy draft day to all!

-Jake Rosenberg

 

Rosy’s April 22, 2011 NFL Draft predictions

Round 1

1. Carolina Panthers (Team needs: DL, QB, OL, TE) -

Cam Newton – QB – Auburn: After three months of debating, Newton appears to be the consensus top pick, allowing the rest of the order to take shape. With questions regarding his character and pro-readiness, Newton isn’t even listed as a Top 10 prospect by most well-known draft gurus. He’s at the top of rebuilding Carolina’s list, however, which could mean the end of 2010 second-round pick Jimmy Clausen’s chances as the team’s future signal-caller. Despite many other team-needs, the Heisman Trophy winner’s potential and playmaking ability make him the first choice.

2. Denver Broncos (DL, OG, OLB, DB) -

Marcell Dareus – DT – Alabama: Dareus has the ability to play at any spot on the defensive line, and the Broncos switch back to the 4-3 makes this an easy choice. Despite a 4-12 record during the 2010 regular season, a record that usually doesn’t land such a high pick, Denver comes away with maybe the highest rated player in the draft and the best of a deep crop of talented linemen.

3. Buffalo Bills (DL, OLB, QB, OL) -

Nick Fairley – DT – Auburn: The Bills were ranked 31st against the run last year. Although Fairley would likely be available later, the Bills overpay again for a first-round lineman in order to fill a glaring hole. A pass-rusher like Von Miller is another possibility if the Bills don’t go with a quarterback. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been serviceable, so expect Buffalo to look for a younger replacement in the next two rounds.

4. Cincinnati Bengals (QB, WR, DB, OG) -

Blaine Gabbert – QB – Missouri: Carson Palmer has already sold his Cincinnati home and moved back to California. The Bengals are forced to take a quarterback, instead of addressing other needs, as Palmer said he would rather retire than return to Cincinnati. Gabbert is ranked by most experts as the top QB in the draft, and this selection allows Cincy to move on quickly without much of a dropoff in production.

5. Arizona Cardinals (QB, LB, CB, OL) -

Von Miller – OLB – Texas A&M: The only quarterbacks worth the No. 5 pick are gone, so the Cards will have to look for an available veteran QB when free agency final begins. Miller would be an instant upgrade over the aging Joey Porter. LSU defensive back Patrick Peterson is another possibility here, but Miller’s athleticism portrayed at the combine is too enticing.

6. Cleveland Browns (WR, OL, DL, RB) -

A.J. Green – WR – Georgia: The Browns have handed Colt McCoy the quarterback reigns, but the former Longhorn still lacks a consistent No. 1 target. Green would go earlier in most drafts, so Cleveland feel fortunate to grab one of the top-rated college receivers in the last decade.

7. San Francisco 49ers (DB, DL, OLB, QB) -

Patrick Peterson – DB – LSU: The Niners have been struggling to get over the hump and into the playoffs ever since drafting Alex Smith with the No. 1 pick in 2005. San Francisco will commit one more season to Smith by not taking a quaterback and grabbing the best defensive back instead. If Cleveland didn’t take Joe Haden in last year’s draft, San Fran might have looked to trade down and add to its league high 12 draft picks.

8. Tennessee Titans (QB, DL, OL, WR) -

Julio Jones – WR – Alabama: Randy Moss will be gone after only a handful of games with the Titans, while Kenny Britt’s recent run-ins with the law have left more doubt in a sputtering passing game that will no longer feature Vince Young at quarterback. Jones will give Tennessee depth and another target for whoever is under center in 2011.

9. Dallas Cowboys (OT, DL, CB, S) -

Tyron Smith – OT – USC: The Cowboys have needs along both lines, so they draft the best available in Southern Cal’s Smith. With Tony Romo missing extended time last year due to injury, Smith gives Dallas an instant starter at right tackle to better protect their star quarterback.

10. Washington Redskins (QB, DL, WR, OL) -

J.J. Watt – DL – Wisconsin: Head coach Mike Shanahan will find a way to bench $100 million defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth if he continues to disrupt the team’s locker room, and Watt gives the coach an instant replacement at any spot along the 3-4 line. Rex Grossman is not a long-term option, but no quarterback left on the board is worth spending a top 10 pick on. UW quarterback Jake Locker continues to be rumored here, but recent reports say Washington may look to trade up in order to snag Gabbert.

11. Houston Texans (CB, OLB, OL, WR) -

Aldon Smith – OLB – Missouri: Mario Williams is the best of a young, quality defensive front. An edge-rusher like Smith would detract some of the former No. 1 pick’s constant double-teams and help a defense that surrendered 24 or more points in 14 games in 2010.

12. Minnesota Vikings (OL, DL, DB, QB) -

Da’Quan Bowers – DE – Clemson: Once thought of as a the best lineman in the draft, Bowers fell on many team’s boards when after realizing he has still not fully recovered from an earlier knee injury. The Vikings’ defensive line is one the best in the league, but age is catching up to its starters.

13. Detroit Lions (OL, CB, LB, WR) -

Prince Amukamara – CB – Nebraska: Many teams may look to trade up for Amukamara, who would only fall this far because of strength at other positions. An offensive lineman is the Lions main concern in order to keep quarterback Matthew Stafford healthy for a full season, but the Cornhusker cornerback gives Detroit more value than any of the remaining offensive tackles or guards.

14. St. Louis Rams (DB, LB, DL, TE) -

Corey Liuget – DT – Illinois: Last year’s No. 1 overall pick, quarterback Sam Bradford, will only get better when the Rams’ top two receivers return from injury. With that, St. Louis can concentrate on bolstering its defense. Another quality lineman playing inside of defensive end Chris Long will give the Rams two youngsters to build around.

15. Miami Dolphins (RB, OG, DB, DT) -

Mark Ingram – RB – Alabama: Ronnie Brown and Rickey Williams are rumored to be out of the Dolphins’ two-back system, so they go with a young and productive runner that can handle the load by himself. Miami proves the bridge isn’t completely burnt with former coach Nick Saban by drafting the former Heisman Trophy winner from Alabama.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars (DL, OL, QB, LB) -

Robert Quinn – DE – North Carolina: The Jags addressed the interior of its 4-3 front with Tyson Alualu last year, so they look for the best available end in this year’s draft. Quinn, who was tabbed by UNC coach Butch Davis as a better 4-3 end than a 3-4 OLB, is likely to go earlier. If Quinn is gone, expect Jacksonville to go with a different end, such as Bowers or Cameron Jordan, Alualu’s former linemate at Cal.

17. (from Oakland) New England Patriots (DL, OLB, OT, CB) -

Muhammad Wilkerson – DE – Temple: Former DE Richard Seymour was traded to Oakland before last season, and the Pats find his replacement with the pick they traded him for. Wilkerson comes in about the same mold as other New England linemen, so he should be able to contribute immediately as most of Bill Belichick’s picks do.

18. San Diego Chargers (OL, DL, OLB, DB) -

Nate Solder – OT – Colorad0: The Chargers need a guard and an offensive tackle to take over one of the two spots on the right side. With Solder, San Diego gets a guy they can plug in at either position.

19. New York Giants (OL, LB, DB, RB) -

Anthony Castonzo – OT – Boston College: The Giants can add depth to an aging offensive line by grabbing an offensive tackle. Castonzo is thought to be the best overall blocker in the draft, and former Boston College coach Tom Coughlin won’t hesitate to take him.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DL, DB, OLB, OL) -

Cameron Jordan – DE – California: The Bucs’ first pick last year, Oklahoma’s Gerald McCoy, will develop faster if he has some help on the outside. Jordan will be the pick if the pool of offensive lineman continues to thin out.

21. Kansas City Chiefs (NT, OL, LB, DB) -

Phil Taylor – DT – Baylor: Former first-rounders Glenn Dorsey, Tyson Jackson and Tamba Hali only need a linemen-eating nose tackle to form one of the league’s imposing, young defensive fronts. Ron Edwards’ time over center is coming to an end, especially if Taylor is taken.

22. Indianapolis Colts (OL, DT, DB, LB) -

Derek Sherrod – OT – Mississippi State: The Colts cut ties with oft-injured safety Bob Sanders, but Indy won’t find a worthy replacement at No. 22. Sherrod has the talent to take over if one of the incumbent offensive linemen fall during another championship run. 

23. Philadelphia Eagles (OG, CB, TE, LB) -

Mike Pouncey – OG – Florida: Coach Andy Reid can shore up his offensive line by taking the best available interior lineman. Pouncey’s stock continues to rise after his twin brother, Maurkice Pouncey, was able to take over at center for the Steelers as a rookie last year.

24. New Orleans Saints (OT, TE, DL, LB) -

Kyle Rudolph – TE – Notre Dame: Jeremy Shockey wasn’t able to stay on the field much for New Orleans. Now that the veteran tight end is gone, the Saints give quarterback Drew Brees a big target to replace him. Rudolph missed time last year because of injury, so that could be a red flag and a reason to look on the defensive side.

25. Seattle Seahawks (OG, QB, OT, DB) -

Danny Watkins – OG – Baylor: The Seahawks would like to take one of the many quarterbacks left on the board, but none of them are worth a first-round pick at this point. Arkansas’ Ryan Mallet and Huskies quarterback Jake Locker might be available in the later rounds. Either Matt Hasselbeck or Charlie Whitehurst will be under center to start the season, so Seattle needs to bolster the 0-line to get the most out of the quarterback position.

26. Baltimore Ravens (DL, OL, LB, CB) -

Cameron Heyward – DE – Ohio State: Heyward can step in right away at either of the 3-4 end spots. The Baltimore defense remains as one of the league’s best, but adding youth will be key to keeping it that way.

27. Atlanta Falcons (DB, LB, TE, OL) -

Aaron Williams – DB – Texas: The Falcons continue to rebuild its secondary by taking Williams. After Amukamara, any one of five defensive backs could be the next to go. Williams is the latest of the second tier of defensive backs.

28. New England Patriots (DL, OLB, RB, WR) -

Ryan Kerrigan – DE – Purdue: New England’s second first-rounder will be an outside linebacker if it finds an end with the No. 17 selection. Kerrigan is a perfect fit as a strong-side outside linebacker in the Pats’ scheme.

29. Chicago Bears (OL, DB, DL, WR) -

Gabe Carimi – OT – Wisconsin: The Bears need a mauler to bring up their average yards-per-rush and a big right tackle to help Jay Cutler stay upright when the cold weather hits Chicago. Carimi is exactly what they need.

30. New York Jets (DE, OLB, DT, WR) -

Stephen Paea – DT – Oregon State: The Jets are old and injury prone on their defensive front, so coach Rex Ryan won’t let Paea slip to the second round. The former Beavers’ strength and ability to take on double-teams brings another impact player to an already impressive defense.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers (DB, DL, OG, WR) -

Jimmy Smith – CB – Colorado: Smith has the skills to be an early first-rounder, but his off-field troubles drop him to the end of the opening day. After getting torched by Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh can’t deny themselves a shot at the best available cover man.

32. Green Bay Packers (OL, DL, RB, LB) -

Adrian Clayborn – DE – Iowa: Current defensive lineman Johnny Jolly continues to build his police record, so the Packers ignore their need for a durable running back in order to build depth on the defensive front. Clayborn has the ability to start Week 1 on the outside at end.

 

*Submit your own mock draft to jake.rosenberg@lee.net (before the draft) to see how you stacked up against my final April 27 predictions. Just copy the information below and fill in the blanks. The top four team-needs are listed next to every team to help you out. Results will be posted the following week.

Mock draft scoring system (each prediction will be awarded one of the following):

5 points for correct player to correct team at correct selection.

4 points for correct player to correct team at different selection (in case of draft-day trades)

3 points for correct player at correct selection to different team (in case of draft-day trades)

2 points for player taken within one selection of prediction; different player/team, but correct position at correct selection

1 point for player taken within two selections of prediction

0 points for for none of the above

Tie-breaker: The most first-round picks.

 

2011 mock  draft blank

Round 1

1. Carolina Panthers (Team needs: DL, QB, OL, TE) -

2. Denver Broncos (DL, OG, OLB, DB) -

3. Buffalo Bills (DL, OLB, QB, OL) -

4. Cincinnati Bengals (QB, WR, DB, OG) -

5. Arizona Cardinals (QB, LB, CB, OL) -

6. Cleveland Browns (WR, OL, DL, RB) -

7. San Francisco 49ers (DB, DL, OLB, QB) -

8. Tennessee Titans (QB, DL, OL, WR) -

9. Dallas Cowboys (OT, DL, CB, S) -

10. Washington Redskins (QB, DL, WR, OL) -

11. Houston Texans (CB, OLB, OL, WR) -

12. Minnesota Vikings (OL, DL, DB, QB) -

13. Detroit Lions (OL, CB, LB, WR) -

14. St. Louis Rams (DB, LB, DL, TE) -

15. Miami Dolphins (RB, OG, DB, DT) -

16. Jacksonville Jaguars (DL, OL, QB, LB) -

17. (from Oakland) New England Patriots (DL, OLB, OT, CB) -

18. San Diego Chargers (OL, DL, OLB, DB) -

19. New York Giants (OL, LB, DB, RB) -

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DL, DB, OLB, OL) -

21. Kansas City Chiefs (NT, OL, LB, DB) -

22. Indianapolis Colts (OL, DT, DB, LB) -

23. Philadelphia Eagles (OG, CB, TE, LB) -

24. New Orleans Saints (OT, TE, DL, LB) -

25. Seattle Seahawks (OG, QB, OT, DB) -

26. Baltimore Ravens (DL, OL, LB, CB) -

27. Atlanta Falcons (DB, LB, TE, OL) -

28. New England Patriots (DL, OLB, RB, WR) -

29. Chicago Bears (OL, DB, DL, WR) -

30. New York Jets (DE, OLB, DT, WR) -

31. Pittsburgh Steelers (DB, DL, OG, WR) -

32. Green Bay Packers (OL, DL, RB, LB) -

 

Position key:

QB – quarterback

RB – running back

WR – wide receiver

TE – tight end

OL – offensive lineman

OT – offensive tackle

OG – offensive guard/center

DL – defensive line

DE – defensive end

DT/NT – Defensive tackle/nose tackle

LB – linebacker

OLB – outside linebacker

ILB – inside linebacker

DB – defensive back

CB – cornerback

S – safety